January 22, 2008

The Crash of 08?

Will today's date become famous in future history books? It already has in Hong Kong.

Those who know the US economy is running on borrowed .... money, and time, have wondered, "Will it come as a rapid crash or a slow, grinding decline?" Judging from the following numbers, it might be the former, and the time might be now.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index nose-dived 5.7 percent -- its biggest percentage drop in nearly 10 years -- to 12,573.05, a day after falling 3.9 percent. Australia's benchmark index sank 7.1 percent, the market's steepest one-day slide in nearly 20 years.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which slumped 5.5 percent Monday, finished down 8.7 percent. In China, the Shanghai Composite index lost 7.2 percent to 4,559.75, its lowest close since August.

I sit here at 5:30am thinking, "Should I move my investments into cash?" Since I don't play around with my money that much, 1) I'm not sure I'd be able to do it rapidly, and 2) I'm not sure it would switch over quickly enough to avoid getting caught in today's pending crash here in the US.

Geeez! Hong Kong, 5.5% Monday and another 8.7% Tuesday. That's nearly 13% in two days.


Sources:

Associated Press, Asian Markets Tumble on US Worries, Yuri Kageyama, January 22, 2008.

Thanks to the comment below. Correction made.

3 comments:

Yuri Kageyama said...

Hi, thanks for your interest in my story. I cover business and economy news in Tokyo. This is my blog:
http://yuri-kageyama.blogspot.com

davidhelgason said...

Well, that's close. It's in fact 12.8% in two days. Percentile changes don't add up straightforwardly.

Example: a drop of 50% for two consecutive days, is a compound drop of 75%, not 100%.

d.

GDAEman said...

davidhelgason

Doh! ~(_8(I)

I stand corrected. And all those years of math!