Mail Box Full

My Congressman's voice mail box is full this morning. Hopefully it's full of voice mails that say something to the effect:

I call to urge you to seek a better tax deal than what President Obama and the US Senate have agreed to. Please stand on the side of the majority of the people who understand that disparity of wealth in the US is at a dangerous extreme. The economic system has been rigged for decades leading to a disgraceful situation of common people working harder for less and seeing the future of their children in peril. The US House of Representatives is the chamber of the people. Stand up to the elite minority so often represented by the US Senate and stand with the people. Thank you

I'll send him an e-mail.

Update: On second thought, I'll also leave a voice mail at one of his district offices.

• Contact the US Senate
• Contact the House of Representatives

Interpreting the 2010 Mid-Term Election

Following the recent election, the establishment narrative has been that Obama over-reached; his initiatives were too liberal and he needs to tack to the right. This view isn't based on analysis, rather it is more a matter of group-think among the punditocracy. To them it's obvious.

However, actual analyses suggest that the right-wing surge in the 2010 mid-term elections hinged on Obama not being progressive enough and thereby loosing the support of his base.

First, lets dismiss with the false common wisdom, promoted by the establishment, that presidents almost always suffer losses in the US House of Representatives during the mid-term elections. It's taken as unalterable fact. It's true that this occurred for George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, but during Franklin Roosevelt's first mid-term election, after he put forth radically progressive programs, the Democratic Party gained seats in the US House of Representatives.

Second, is the contradiction between the establishment narratives of the mid-term elections. On the one hand, losses in the US House were predicted on the basis of an "enthusiasm gap;" the narrative was that Democrats were disillusioned with Obama and thus less likely to work on the mid-term election campaign and come out to vote on election day. This narrative conflicts with the post-election interpretation that says Obama is being too liberal and needs to tack to the right.

Third, there are the numbers. Below is a comparison of exit poll information for US House vote results for 2008 and 2010, each with about 17,000 people surveyed. As a percentage, Democratic voters were a significantly smaller proportion in 2010 than in 2008.

Percentage of Turnout by Party for
US House Vote
2008 Vs 2010

Party Affiliation	2008 Percentage	2010 Percentage
Democratic	40%	35%
Republican	33%	35%
Independent	28%	29%

But percentages only tell part of the story. Did Democrats stay home, or did more Republicans come out in 2010 than 2008.

According to ABC News (Bold added),

[the] current estimate is that 90 million people voted [in 2010]. Exit poll says 45 percent were Obama voters in 2008. That’s 40.5 million voters.

In 2008, Obama won 69.5 million votes. So about 29 million Obama voters did not show up in 2010.

Exit poll also says 45 percent of people who voted yesterday were McCain voters in 2008, again 40.5 million. That, vs. his nearly 60 million in 2008, means about 19.5 million McCain voters did not show up.

So Obama had nearly 10 million more no-shows.

The following tables show that, of the Democrats that did come out to vote in 2010, they for the most part stayed with the Democratic party compared with 2008 (91-92%).

However, there were shifts in both Republican and Independent votes away from the Democrats to the Republicans. As a percentage, we see a big shift in Independents voting 51% Democratic in 2008 to only 37% Democratic in 2010.

US House Vote by Party Affiliation - 2010

Party and % of Turnout	% of Vote Dem	% of Vote Rep	% of Vote Other
Democratic 35%	91	7	2
Republican 35%	5	94	1
Independent 29%	37	56	7

US House Vote by Party Affiliation - 2008

Party and % of Turnout	% of Vote Dem	% of Vote Rep	% of Vote Other
Democratic 40%	92	7	1
Republican 33%	9	89	2
Independent 28%	51	42	6

But it's wrong to conclude that Independents simply jumped ship from Democrats to Republicans. About 48.5 million Independents voted in 2008, but only about 34 million voted in 2010, nearly a 15 million voter difference. If the "enthusiasm gap" story is correct, leading to progressive Democrats and Independents staying home, then concluding that voters seek a more "centrist" or conservative policy agenda, based on 2010 exit polls in which many "unenthused" progressive voices were absent, is in error.

Sources:

Re-posted from Challenge the Establishment Blog.

2010 Exit Polls for House voting - CNN

2008 Exit Polls for House voting - CNN

Thanks to GLH Blog for the ABC News information.

One Voice for Real Healthcare

Since writing on "How Healthcare Legislation Will Pass" I heard a disturbing interview with the founder of Firedog Lake Blog, Jane Hamsher, on DemocracyNow! She is sounding a bit pessimistic, suggesting 1) final bill out of conference will have a triggered public option, which will never be triggered, and 2) will include Stupack anti-choice amendment.... unless we raise our voices.

Hamsher is trying hard to create counter pressure via a phone banking operation that targets Democratic House members who voted for the Stupack amendment via One Voice for Choice.

Jane Hamsher has been following the healthcare legislation very closely:

JANE HAMSHER on Public Option: .... it looks like it’s going to get worse this week [12/3/09]. Privately, people in the Senate are confirming that Harry Reid is going to try and cut a deal for triggers, which is something that the White House has been pushing for, Rahm Emanuel, since January of this year. They’ve wanted it all along. They’ve said they wanted the public option, but what they’ve worked for is triggers. And we always knew that this was, you know, probably going to be the lay of the land.

... the fact is that the White House [Rahm Emanuel] cut these deals over the summer with ... the insurance companies, the drug companies, and they have intended to follow through on them in order to keep the donations and the lobbying money out of the pockets of the Republicans in 2010. So they are going to try and jam triggers through, and I believe that, at the end of the day, we’ll be in a situation where we will be asking those members of the House that we got to commit to vote against any bill that doesn’t have a public option in it to vote against this bill.

JANE HAMSHER on Anti-Choice Language: Stupak [the anti-choice amendment], I believe, will make it into a conference report. As you know, after the Senate and House pass a bill, they go into conference and have to merge the two bills. And because Nancy Pelosi is saying she can’t pass a bill without Stupak, I believe that whether Ben Nelson is successful in getting it into the Senate bill or not, I believe that it will be in the final bill that comes out of conference. [Unless We Apply Major Pressure... See Phone Banking link above].

Hamsher says a lot of people don't realize that federal funds are already prohibited for abortions by the Hyde amendment passed years ago. Stupak's amendment goes further:

JANE HAMSHER on Anti-Choice Language: ... no insurance company offering insurance on the exchange, whether it’s funded with government money or not, can offer elective abortion coverage. And that threatens to take away abortion coverage from just about any insurance policy, because even the private insurance plans for reinsurance of big companies that have their employees insured can be affected by it...

For Your Convenience:

Contact the US Senate

Contact the House of Representatives

Contact the White House

One Voice for Choice Phone Banking

Sources:

DemocracyNow! “One Voice for Choice"–FireDogLake Founder Launches Campaign to Target Dems Supporting Stupak Amendment, December 3, 2009

How Healthcare Legislation Will Pass

We could all drive ourselves crazy following the twists and turns of the Senate healthcare legislative process, but that would be very stressful. The word is that the Senate will likely pass healthcare without a public option, thereby gaining the necessary 60 votes for cloture. Then, the legislation will go to the conference committee to be reconciled with the House bill, at which point the public option will be put into the bill. Then the Senate will vote on the reconciled bill with only 51 votes needed.

Health Care Battle Heats Up

From the Progressive Democrats of America (edited by Godless Liberal Homo Blog):

...please don't forget to email your representative [May 14] to let them know you favor single-payer healthcare and ask them to co-sponosr HR 676. Get the details here.

...Read the the reports on the final Senate Finance Sub-committee on Healthcare hearing. Five activists were arrested, while others were outside (pictured) with PDA Advisory Board Chair Mimi Kennedy and the California Nurses Association protesting the exclusion of single-payer healthcare from the debate. Learn More.

The battle lines are drawn and we're doing our best to move single-payer healthcare forward--we appreciate your support!

If you have ever been denied coverage for healthcare you needed, you know why we need single payer healthcare to get the insurance companies and HMOs out of the business altogether.

Find and Contact the People in House and Senate Who Are Supposed to Be Representing You!

Take Action:

If you don't see your congress person on the list of cosponsors below, contact them and ask them to sign on.

• Contact the House of Representatives

Rep Abercrombie, Neil [HI-1] - 1/24/2007
Rep Baca, Joe [CA-43] - 9/17/2007
Rep Baldwin, Tammy [WI-2] - 1/24/2007
Rep Becerra, Xavier [CA-31] - 6/13/2007
Rep Berman, Howard L. [CA-28] - 6/15/2007
Rep Bishop, Sanford D., Jr. [GA-2] - 12/11/2007
Rep Brady, Robert A. [PA-1] - 2/27/2007
Rep Brown, Corrine [FL-3] - 4/17/2007
Rep Capuano, Michael E. [MA-8] - 11/9/2007
Rep Carson, Andre [IN-7] - 7/10/2008
Rep Carson, Julia [IN-7] - 1/24/2007
Rep Christensen, Donna M. [VI] - 1/24/2007
Rep Clarke, Yvette D. [NY-11] - 2/16/2007
Rep Clay, Wm. Lacy [MO-1] - 1/24/2007
Rep Cleaver, Emanuel [MO-5] - 4/22/2008
Rep Clyburn, James E. [SC-6] - 4/24/2008
Rep Cohen, Steve [TN-9] - 2/7/2007
Rep Cummings, Elijah E. [MD-7] - 1/24/2007
Rep Davis, Danny K. [IL-7] - 1/24/2007
Rep Delahunt, William D. [MA-10] - 2/12/2007
Rep Doyle, Michael F. [PA-14] - 3/21/2007
Rep Edwards, Donna F. [MD-4] - 9/29/2008
Rep Ellison, Keith [MN-5] - 1/24/2007
Rep Engel, Eliot L. [NY-17] - 1/24/2007
Rep Farr, Sam [CA-17] - 1/24/2007
Rep Fattah, Chaka [PA-2] - 1/24/2007
Rep Filner, Bob [CA-51] - 1/24/2007
Rep Frank, Barney [MA-4] - 3/7/2007
Rep Green, Al [TX-9] - 1/24/2007
Rep Grijalva, Raul M. [AZ-7] - 1/24/2007
Rep Gutierrez, Luis V. [IL-4] - 1/24/2007
Rep Hare, Phil [IL-17] - 4/30/2007
Rep Hastings, Alcee L. [FL-23] - 1/29/2007
Rep Hinchey, Maurice D. [NY-22] - 1/24/2007
Rep Hirono, Mazie K. [HI-2] - 7/23/2007
Rep Holt, Rush D. [NJ-12] - 9/18/2008
Rep Honda, Michael M. [CA-15] - 1/24/2007
Rep Jackson, Jesse L., Jr. [IL-2] - 1/24/2007
Rep Jackson-Lee, Sheila [TX-18] - 1/24/2007
Rep Jefferson, William J. [LA-2] - 6/26/2007
Rep Johnson, Eddie Bernice [TX-30] - 1/24/2007
Rep Johnson, Henry C. "Hank," Jr. [GA-4] - 2/13/2007
Rep Jones, Stephanie Tubbs [OH-11] - 5/23/2007
Rep Kaptur, Marcy [OH-9] - 2/12/2007
Rep Kennedy, Patrick J. [RI-1] - 9/24/2007
Rep Kildee, Dale E. [MI-5] - 4/17/2007
Rep Kilpatrick, Carolyn C. [MI-13] - 1/24/2007
Rep Kucinich, Dennis J. [OH-10] - 1/24/2007
Rep Lantos, Tom [CA-12] - 10/1/2007
Rep Lee, Barbara [CA-9] - 1/24/2007
Rep Lewis, John [GA-5] - 1/24/2007
Rep Loebsack, David [IA-2] - 1/24/2007
Rep Lynch, Stephen F. [MA-9] - 10/9/2007
Rep Maloney, Carolyn B. [NY-14] - 1/29/2007
Rep McDermott, Jim [WA-7] - 1/24/2007
Rep McGovern, James P. [MA-3] - 1/24/2007
Rep McNulty, Michael R. [NY-21] - 1/24/2007
Rep Meehan, Martin T. [MA-5] - 1/24/2007
Rep Meeks, Gregory W. [NY-6] - 9/20/2007
Rep Miller, George [CA-7] - 1/24/2007
Rep Moore, Gwen [WI-4] - 1/24/2007
Rep Moran, James P. [VA-8] - 1/22/2008
Rep Nadler, Jerrold [NY-8] - 1/29/2007
Rep Napolitano, Grace F. [CA-38] - 2/27/2007
Rep Norton, Eleanor Holmes [DC] - 3/21/2007
Rep Olver, John W. [MA-1] - 2/16/2007
Rep Pastor, Ed [AZ-4] - 1/24/2007
Rep Payne, Donald M. [NJ-10] - 1/24/2007
Rep Rangel, Charles B. [NY-15] - 1/24/2007
Rep Richardson, Laura [CA-37] - 9/20/2007
Rep Roybal-Allard, Lucille [CA-34] - 1/24/2007
Rep Rush, Bobby L. [IL-1] - 2/6/2007
Rep Ryan, Tim [OH-17] - 5/8/2007
Rep Sanchez, Linda T. [CA-39] - 4/23/2007
Rep Sanchez, Loretta [CA-47] - 9/20/2007
Rep Schakowsky, Janice D. [IL-9] - 4/17/2007
Rep Scott, David [GA-13] - 9/20/2007
Rep Scott, Robert C. "Bobby" [VA-3] - 1/24/2007
Rep Serrano, Jose E. [NY-16] - 2/7/2007
Rep Solis, Hilda L. [CA-32] - 2/12/2007
Rep Sutton, Betty [OH-13] - 3/27/2007
Rep Thompson, Bennie G. [MS-2] - 6/12/2007
Rep Tierney, John F. [MA-6] - 9/6/2007
Rep Towns, Edolphus [NY-10] - 1/24/2007
Rep Udall, Tom [NM-3] - 2/27/2007
Rep Waters, Maxine [CA-35] - 1/29/2007
Rep Watson, Diane E. [CA-33] - 1/24/2007
Rep Weiner, Anthony D. [NY-9] - 1/24/2007
Rep Welch, Peter [VT] - 5/3/2007
Rep Wexler, Robert [FL-19] - 1/24/2007
Rep Woolsey, Lynn C. [CA-6] - 1/24/2007
Rep Wynn, Albert Russell [MD-4] - 1/24/2007
Rep Yarmuth, John A. [KY-3] - 2/27/2007

Sources:

Progressive Democrats of America.

Godless Liberal Homo Blog.

Library of Congress, THOMAS (Up-to-date list of HR 676 cosponsors).

Jerry Nadler for NY Senate Seat

Hilary Clinton's Senate seat is opening and the New York Governor will appoint her replacement. Caroline Kennedy is actively campaigning for the seat. Jerrold Nadler is a contender, but isn't openly campaigning.

Nadler is chair of a House subcommittee on the US Constitution. He speaks truth to power. He was one of the first politicians I heard, well over a year ago, say, to the effect, "impeachment is NOT important, because we will seek criminal prosecution," of Bush and the other high officials who have broken laws that define our democracy.

Nadler has 8 years of experience in Congress and has the temperment to be in the upper house (Senate). Please raise your voice on his behalf.


Contact New York Governor David Paterson. Urge him to appoint Jerrold Nadler to the US Senate for the state of New York.

Psssst... Pass the Word... Our voices are louder with direct contact...

• Contact the Broadcast Media
  
• Contact the Newspapers
  
• Contact the US Senate
  
• Contact the House of Representatives

Sources:

Economy: A Mess

Stocks plummet after retail, unemployment data

3% drop is big. Watch it swing right back up. Such swings have typically preceded past major economic crashes.... kinda like the nasty wobble before wipe-out, the bright light bulb before burn out, and the wild energy of a fly before death.

Jobless claims jump is bad omen for economy.

"Omen"? It's been a year since the big mortgage melt-dwon, and their still talking about omens for the future?

U.S. House Price Decline Could Be Worse Than Great Depression.

The higher the price, the further it has to fall. Raise your hand if you've heard a friend say, "If I had to buy my house now, I couldn't afford it." A modest house and a solid middle-class income... some speculators got rich and we're paying for it. But don't worry, the free market always corrects itself.

I was a little surprised by the date of a past article of mine. Remember the August 2007 real estate melt-down? Here's what I wrote in May 28, 2007:

Watch the real estate situation unravel this summer. Congress will try to save it, placing the burden on future tax-payers (so much for a "free" market in which bad business decisions are allowed to play out). We've seen it before in the same way the S&L double-scandal was swept under the rug. The twin debts will grow. Eventually, foreigners will diversify out of dollars, more so than they are already, and the US will decline like Spain and Britain did. The "hope" is that the US will do so with grace rather than a holocaust.

Photo Credit: "mess" by skepticillusion.

GIs miss own weddings, baby's first words during long Iraq tour

Today we read a Yahoo! news headline

GIs miss own weddings, baby's first words during long Iraq tour

So, we can expect to be told, by the TVs, and the Bush administration, and McCain-backers, that "the surge has worked" and we are on the verge of "success" in Iraq. They will argue that the sacrifices identified in the Yahoo! News headline were worth the victory. If it takes self-delusion to get us out of Iraq, I suppose I can go along with it for a while. But really...

Success? Fewer deaths per month is "success?" The ethnic cleansing has played itself out, as over 2 million Iraqis have left the country and walls now divide newly created ethnic fifdoms that depend on local militias for security. Was this part of the plan? Is this part of the "success"? Is buying off and arming Sunnis, who were involved in the Shia ethnic cleansing, an honorable "success"? Many don't believe this "stability" will hold, given that it was effectively created by the US with pay checks and short-term interests that can change in the future.

It's as if a bee (Hussein) was buzzing around in someone's house and the US came in, without permission, to get the bee. The homeowner was glad about that in the beginning.

Then, in it's initial shock and awe, US soldiers destroyed the living room... smashed TV, chairs turned over with broken legs, stuffing torn out of cushions, walls bashed in, windows broken, reading materials and unopened mail burned. Meanwhile, the bee buzzed off into another room. Then, room by room, the US inflicts similar destruction.

Eventually the home owner intervenes to demand a say in how the US is going after the bee. The owner wants to be informed of US attacks, so at least nobody will get hurt as US soldiers, led by George W. Bush, continue to hammer away trying to get that bee.

Finally, they smash the bee! Success!

The children in the house have black eyes, swollen lips, missing teeth, worse than any bee sting. Many of the family heirlooms are completely ruined. The homeowner's spouse has left and filed for divorce. The homeowner no longer has a job and is in debt and has late bill payments, and a credit record in shambles. Success?

The soldiers lament missing their weddings and baby's first words. But the bee is dead! Was the sacrifice worth it? Is this really "success"?

The king has no clothes. Less violence in Iraq will never be "success" or "victory." US policy and actions have destroyed the society once called Iraq. Many of its antiquities and public records have been ruined. It's economic independence has been subjugated by the US in order to rid it of Hussein? Of course not. If getting rid of Hussein was the goal, the US would be gone by now.

If stability or control in the region was the goal, the US has certainly made a mess of that, tilting the balance of power toward Iran. I could go on, but the notion of "success" or "victory" in Iraq is impossible given the horrible destruction inflicted on generations by the war. We got nothing in return... the end of violence is NOT a victory, despite what McCain or the mass media pundits say. The king has no clothes when it comes to victory in Iraq.

Sources:

GIs miss own weddings, baby's first words during long Iraq tour

Is Anything Keeping Bush from Attacking Iran?

One thing keeping Bush from attacking Iran might be joint chiefs chairman General Peter Pace. It was a mini military coup when Pace contradicted the White House line, saying there is no direct link to Iranian leaders. Pace spoke out while traveling in Indonesia.

There is, however, plenty of buzz that an attack is brewing. Zbigniew Brzezinski, former NSC Director in the Carter administration, delivered this warning to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Feb. 1:

If the United States continues to be bogged down in a protracted bloody involvement in Iraq, the final destination on this downhill track is likely to be a head-on conflict with Iran and with much of the world of Islam at large. A plausible scenario for a military collision with Iran involves Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks; followed by accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure; then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the U.S. blamed on Iran; culminating in a “defensive” U.S. military action against Iran that plunges a lonely America into a spreading and deepening quagmire eventually ranging across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

There's also practical consideration of Iran's potential response to an attack that might give Bush pause: Iran has said they will retaliate around the world if attacked, and they have the assets to do it. Also, Iran could make life for US soldiers in Iraq even more dangerous if the US were to attack.

Brzezinski did not conceal his opinion about the genesis of Bush's Iraq war. His opening sentence was a slam:

Your hearings come at a critical juncture in the U.S. war of choice in Iraq, and I commend you and Senator Lugar for scheduling them.

Brzezinski and General Pace are doing their part to counter Bush's drive to war with Iran, and perhaps war with Islam. The other thing that could help keep Bush from attacking Iran is intense public pressure. To that end, we can begin by voicing our views with Congress and with the corporate mass media.

Contacts:

Write the US House of Representatives
Write the US Senate
Write the Major Media Outlets
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