Interpreting the 2010 Mid-Term Election

Following the recent election, the establishment narrative has been that Obama over-reached; his initiatives were too liberal and he needs to tack to the right. This view isn't based on analysis, rather it is more a matter of group-think among the punditocracy. To them it's obvious.

However, actual analyses suggest that the right-wing surge in the 2010 mid-term elections hinged on Obama not being progressive enough and thereby loosing the support of his base.

First, lets dismiss with the false common wisdom, promoted by the establishment, that presidents almost always suffer losses in the US House of Representatives during the mid-term elections. It's taken as unalterable fact. It's true that this occurred for George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, but during Franklin Roosevelt's first mid-term election, after he put forth radically progressive programs, the Democratic Party gained seats in the US House of Representatives.

Second, is the contradiction between the establishment narratives of the mid-term elections. On the one hand, losses in the US House were predicted on the basis of an "enthusiasm gap;" the narrative was that Democrats were disillusioned with Obama and thus less likely to work on the mid-term election campaign and come out to vote on election day. This narrative conflicts with the post-election interpretation that says Obama is being too liberal and needs to tack to the right.

Third, there are the numbers. Below is a comparison of exit poll information for US House vote results for 2008 and 2010, each with about 17,000 people surveyed. As a percentage, Democratic voters were a significantly smaller proportion in 2010 than in 2008.

Percentage of Turnout by Party for
US House Vote
2008 Vs 2010

Party Affiliation	2008 Percentage	2010 Percentage
Democratic	40%	35%
Republican	33%	35%
Independent	28%	29%

But percentages only tell part of the story. Did Democrats stay home, or did more Republicans come out in 2010 than 2008.

According to ABC News (Bold added),

[the] current estimate is that 90 million people voted [in 2010]. Exit poll says 45 percent were Obama voters in 2008. That’s 40.5 million voters.

In 2008, Obama won 69.5 million votes. So about 29 million Obama voters did not show up in 2010.

Exit poll also says 45 percent of people who voted yesterday were McCain voters in 2008, again 40.5 million. That, vs. his nearly 60 million in 2008, means about 19.5 million McCain voters did not show up.

So Obama had nearly 10 million more no-shows.

The following tables show that, of the Democrats that did come out to vote in 2010, they for the most part stayed with the Democratic party compared with 2008 (91-92%).

However, there were shifts in both Republican and Independent votes away from the Democrats to the Republicans. As a percentage, we see a big shift in Independents voting 51% Democratic in 2008 to only 37% Democratic in 2010.

US House Vote by Party Affiliation - 2010

Party and % of Turnout	% of Vote Dem	% of Vote Rep	% of Vote Other
Democratic 35%	91	7	2
Republican 35%	5	94	1
Independent 29%	37	56	7

US House Vote by Party Affiliation - 2008

Party and % of Turnout	% of Vote Dem	% of Vote Rep	% of Vote Other
Democratic 40%	92	7	1
Republican 33%	9	89	2
Independent 28%	51	42	6

But it's wrong to conclude that Independents simply jumped ship from Democrats to Republicans. About 48.5 million Independents voted in 2008, but only about 34 million voted in 2010, nearly a 15 million voter difference. If the "enthusiasm gap" story is correct, leading to progressive Democrats and Independents staying home, then concluding that voters seek a more "centrist" or conservative policy agenda, based on 2010 exit polls in which many "unenthused" progressive voices were absent, is in error.

Sources:

Re-posted from Challenge the Establishment Blog.

2010 Exit Polls for House voting - CNN

2008 Exit Polls for House voting - CNN

Thanks to GLH Blog for the ABC News information.

Early Exit Polls 2008

Early exit polling information released to the public is limited to voter demographics and their general opinions, rather than results of how people voted. This is to avoid influencing the perceptions of voters who vote later in the Western states.


Early Exit Poll Results Favor Obama:

• It's the Economy Stupid: Six in 10 voters picked the economy as the most important issue facing the nation. Many people associate the economic troubles with the deregulatory ideology of the Republican Party.
  
• To Repeat, "It's the Economy": 5 in 6 people are very or somewhat worried the current economic crisis will harm their family's finances over the next year.
  
• Health Care: wo-thirds of voters said they're worried about being able to afford the health care. This issue generally breaks in favor of the Democratic Party.
  
• New Voters: One in 10 voters said they were voting this year for the first time, and that group was disproportionately young and nonwhite.
  
• Survey Under-Estimates? A quarter of new voters said they don't have landline phones at home, only cell phones. Most surveys are conducted by landline phones, suggesting that polls might have under-counted these people who are likely Obama voters, due to age and voter registration efforts by Obama's campaign.
  

Early results the Might Work Against Obama:

• White Evangelical Turn-out: One in four voters were white born-again evangelical Christians. It is important to note, however, that Obama is an evangelical and there is a strong tradition of progressive evangelicals who take seriously their stewardship of the Earth.
  
• Offshore Drilling: Two-thirds favor drilling for oil offshore in U.S. waters where it is not allowed now.
  

Sources:

Susan Eisenhower's Speech

Until recently, President Eisenhower's grand daughter Susan was a registered Republican. She spoke during prime time on the closing night of the Democratic convention. She gave a great speech and you could tell she really meant it.

Susan Eisenhower's Speech at 2008 Dem Convention (Transcript)

Wikipedia on Susan Eisenhower

The other speech that struck a chord, despite getting off to a wooden start, came from a typical American named Barney Smith. Political consultants should take note of the crowd-response to what will be a memorable one-liner of the convention when he said "I want a president who cares more about Barney Smith than Smith Barney."