Showing posts with label subprime. Show all posts
Showing posts with label subprime. Show all posts

September 10, 2011

"We Didn't See it Coming"

For Some reason, my comments on Paul Krugman's blog don't seem to stick. Below is my comment on his post entitled: How We Failed

The "We didn't see it coming" thing drives me crazy. My experience in seeing it [the bubble burst] coming is reflected in three clear memories.

First, The Great Unraveling by... some economist from NJ, pretty much had me change my ARM to a fixed rate mortgage a couple years before the bust.

Second, people with good jobs in my solid middle class neighborhood were saying, "If I had to buy my [modest row] house today, I couldn't afford it." I remember exactly where I was, walking my dog.

Third, it was going to by systemic: "Systemic Risk: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Role of OFEHO," February, 2003, which lost Armamndo Falcon his job. http://www.ofheo.gov/Media/Archive/docs/reports/sysrisk.pdf


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February 17, 2008

Crumbling Rock at the End of the Rope

Wow. Britain has socialized the bank Northern Rock PLC. Northern Rock is one of the top five mortgage lenders in the United Kingdom in terms of gross lending.

Maybe Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is being persuasive. More likely, corporate capitalism is demonstrating that, yes, it is self-correcting. But, "self-correcting" is not the same as "self-regulating." With unregulated markets, those self-corrections can come in the form of large institutions going down the tubes after bacchanalian speculation.

The deregulation craze, starting with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, went too far. Regulation, like a heavy flywheel on a car, helps smooth out the booms and busts, the later known as "corrections".

Take regulation away and capital accumulation goes wild, a few people get rich, stocks zoom up, speculation, a natural part of it, creates disconnections between the real value of assets and the get-rich-quick aspirations of speculators. Add cheap credit, inflationary federal monetary policies and fractional reserve banking and, as we're seeing, the disconnect between real value and speculative prices can become so large that the "correction" of the market can be terminal.

The message? Laissez-faire capitalism was given enough deregulatory rope to hang itself. It is now twisting at the end of that rope, feet kicking, eyes bulging looking to governments, that means We the Tax Payers, to "do something."

There is a solution floating around here in the US, but some think it's too "radical." Take Joe, snookered into an adjustable rate mortgage on a home that was overpriced because of the deregulatory speculative boom described above. Because Joe's mortgage is now part of a bundle of mortgages, known as a mortgaged backed security (bond), which is now part of someone's investment portfolio, it isn't possible to say, "Joe, we're going to renegotiate your mortgage." So, the "solution" is for the US Government to buy these crappy bonds, unbundle them, and do the renegotiations with the Joe's of the Nation.

Everyone pays for bailing out this capitalist debacle. But, another part of the solution must be that we get a public admission that well regulated markets are a good thing. No more of this know-nothing punditocracy lauding the Laissez-faire deregulated free market system as some kind of deity. That notion is, once again, discredited by the facts unraveling before us.

History shows, time and again, that, yes, economics principles exist. What goes up, must come down. Humans are supposed to be different from other members of the animal kingdom in their ability to self-reflect, to document their history in writing, to learn from their history. So far, it appears the free market fundamentalists have yet to join the human side of the animal kingdom, 'cuz they continue to make the same mistake over and over.

Sources:

Associated Press, Britain Nationalizes Northern Rock, February 17, 2008.

February 15, 2008

Who is to Blame for Subprime Mess 2

Maybe you don't believe my case for who is to blame for the subprime mess, and pending recession.

Would you believe former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan? According to the Associated Press, Greenspan said the following last night at a dinner for energy executives:
... what began as a niche part of the mortgage market grew as hedge funds sought out the collateralized paper associated with the loans.

Greenspan said recently it was the repackaging and sale to investors of the risky home loans — not the subprime loans themselves — that were to blame for the global credit crisis.

And who let the risk be passed on via all of this speculative paper? In part, Greenspan's Federal Reserve and other regulatory bodies. They let it run amok when rocket scientists like me were saying, "Whoa. This real estate bubble is getting way out of control."

Some were saying, "it's not a bubble." As if foreign investment would sustain the high prices, even though my well paid, middle class friends were saying, "If I had to buy my house today, I couldn't afford it."

Then there is the globalization factor. First, globalized financial markets allowed the foreign money to rush into our markets and contribute to the balloon. And, just like the saying, "what goes up, must come down," that global money can flee from our markets, deflating the balloon.

My recommendation: The system has become so corrupt that you're better off trusting your instincts than the so-called experts.

Update: Who is Penny Pritzker and what is her relationship with Barak Obama and the mortgage backed bond mess? The Pritzkers were central to the invention of mortgage backed securities.

Sources:

Associated Press, No recession yet, Greenspan says, February 15, 2008.

December 5, 2007

Who is Responsible for Subprime Mess?

First, I should say that some entities have broken laws. Their blame is beyond question. However, the entities on which I'm focusing are those that didn't technically break any laws. They still bear responsibility.

The case, in a nutshell, is that corporations are amoral profit-seeking machines, so it is expected that they will push the legal and ethical limits. As a consequence, you can't blame a dog for acting like a dog, and the same goes with Wall Street and loan originating corporations. Yet, if someone is bitten by a dog, the dog still shares in the blame, even if provoked.

Wall Street's blame is greater than the loan originators. By Wall Street I mean hedge funds, major banks, investment firms, bond raters and other enablers that kept moving bad investment bubble expanding. They helped create the bubble market, in part
by financing the local mortgage lenders. Wall Street should have known better. They were making wind fall profits, many knowing that investors in mortgage backed bonds were going to be left holding the bag. Some were stupid, but when you have your hands on major investments that can rock the nation's economy, being dumb isn't an excuse.

The loan originators were just operating day to day responding to the market created by Wall Street. Their reasoning, "The balloon is still expanding, I'll go originate another loan until I can't do so any more." Although many loan originators used unethical practices, so do car sales men.

The buyers share some of the blame, yet they are clearly price takers, many being forced to operate in a failing market. That is, if your job moved, and you had to move and buy a house, you were forced to do so, while Wall Street operators were profiting handsomely at your expense. When buyers wondered how they could afford the loans, the loan brokers reassured them. They were telling buyers, "this is just the way the market works now. It's been like this in California for decades. The rest of the Nation is just catching up. It's true that some buyers were speculating and flipping real estate, and they deserve more blame than typical buyers. Buyers were duped and forced to deal with a failing market.

And who let the market failure occur and perpetuate? The regulators. They are experts and should have known better than to let profit-seeking machines run amok with so much at stake. Even part-time hobbyists like me could see the disaster coming. Unfortunately, they profess knowledge, but were themselves duped by their own belief that the market is self-correcting. They're partly right. But they failed to consider that the self-correction could be like a plane self-correcting into the ground.

Now the bailouts come, and guess who will pay for it? Not the Wall Street insiders who were spending their bonuses last year on upgrading their Manhattan real estate from a $3 million dollar flat to a bigger flat with a better view. Not the regulators, one of whom named Greenspan has just written his memoirs and re-written history. Not the loan originators. The industry pawns have already paid once by being laid off, and are likely to be paying again, with the rest of us, in direct bail outs of "too big to fail" firms, like Citigroup, and paying in the form of not having government programs that widely benefit the common people (expansion and maintenance of national parks and museums, financial aid for college, improved health care, etc.)

That's the gist of it. But for those who are interested, there's more.

Robert Kuttner points out a contradiction about "free markets" in explaining why regulators should not have allowed this unfolding disaster to happen:
There were regulations on the books that the federal reserve refused to enforce because the Fed claims to believe in free markets, except when they go nuts, then the Fed bails them out.

In other words, the markets are free when the inside crowd is vacuuming in profits from the commoners, but when the self-correction comes, the market is no longer free, and the inside-crowd gets bailed out... by the commoners.

Economist Paul Krugman, who specializes in global financial stability and crises, recently wrote a column for the New York Times entitled, "Innovating Our Way to Financial Crisis."

First, Krugman gives us a sense of the magnitude of the crisis:

How bad is it? Well, I’ve never seen financial insiders this spooked — not even during the Asian crisis of 1997-98, when economic dominoes seemed to be falling all around the world.

This time, market players seem truly horrified — because they’ve suddenly realized that they don’t understand the complex financial system they created.

Others, whom I could quote if I was more diligent, have said this crisis is ten times worse than the Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s. We tax payers are still paying for that bailout.

Krugman explains the regulator's blunder:

... the problem was ideological: policy makers, committed to the view that the market is always right, simply ignored the warning signs. We know, in particular, that Alan Greenspan brushed aside warnings from Edward Gramlich, who was a member of the Federal Reserve Board, about a potential subprime crisis.

Krugman continues, indicating that the regulators have still not learned their lesson:

Just a few weeks ago Henry Paulson, the Treasury secretary, admitted to Fortune magazine that financial innovation got ahead of regulation — but added, “I don’t think we’d want it the other way around.” Is that your final answer, Mr. Secretary?

I noted that this essay focuses on legal operatives. A potentially valid criticism of this essay is to assume that the whole damn affair wasn't fraught with illegal activity. Some have surely crossed the legal line, particularly in the mortgage lending sector. One is particularly noteworthy.

On the same day that the White House announced that President Bush is nominating California billionaire Roland E. Arnall to be ambassador to the Netherlands, the company he controls said it would set aside $325 million for a possible settlement of allegations of predatory lending tactics.

Arnall's company, Ameriquest Mortgage Co., is being investigated by regulators in 30 states. A $325 million settlement would be one of the largest ever in a predatory lending case.

You can read more in the July 29, 2007 Washington Post.

Another case was the lender "Countrywide." I had a loan with them once. They might have been the one who, upon buying my loan, or maybe it was selling it to another lender, failed to pass along the home owners insurance information. I received a notice from the insurance company that my premium hadn't been paid, and was no longer covered (had the house burned down at that point, I'd have been one seriously fucked individual). It seemed like a scam, because when I went to buy insurance, I had to pay a lot more than before... everything has changed since 9/11, and I think the commoners are paying for it... again.

Everyone interested in this subject should read Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree.

Barowers are being scapegoated. This essay is an attempt to mitigate that misplaced blame. A lot of the innovated lending products were complicated and misrepresented by brokers who bore no risk because they either never owned the mortgage, or they sold it to be bundled with other loans as a mortgage-backed security (bond). This time around, we need to learn the lesson of the S&L scanals. That is, it was three scandals. The first was the Congressional deregulation scandal. The second was the corporate run amok scandal. The third was the Congressional bail out scandal. Lets bail out the duped home buyers, but not the profit reaping inside crowd this time around.

Sources:

This essay was inspired by an interview of Robert Kuttner by Robert McChesney,on the December 2, 2007 episode of the radio show Media Matters. Dr. Kuttner is a founder of the American Prospect Magazine and author of the recent book, "The Squandering of America: How the Failure of Our Politics Undermines Our Prosperity" (Knopf, November 2007), which goes further into these issues.

November 10, 2007

The Subprime Scam

I started writing about the "irrational exuberance" of the real estate market at the end of 2005 as it became clear that the debt feast was coming to an end.

The unraveling of the real estate market isn't funny for people who are stressing over the loss of their home. 2.8 million families are facing unaffordable mortgages that are predicted to go bust over the next 18 months. It's even less funny when one realizes that the inside crowd knew they were making fortunes off of a boom cycle that would surely bust after they'd made their riches. For those getting rich, the "exuberance" wasn't "irrational."

The following video uses humor to explain how the subprime scam worked. British comedians John Bird and John Fortune perform their skit entitled, "The Last Laugh," for the ITV South Bank Show.



Sources:

Credit to Gary North who posted a link to this video in his essay Two Kinds of Experts, November 8, 2007, LewRockwell.com.

August 14, 2007

The Chain in the Real Estate Reaction

The simple domestic chain reaction in the current financial crisis is outlined below. We're facing a systemic financial crisis; failure in one sector of the economy is spreading to the larger economy threatening a substantial reduction in aggregate economic activity.

Before outlining the chain reaction, some background. It didn't take an economist to know that this was coming. We've known that pronouncements about a robust economy were hollow, and reflect a phony Wall Street economy that has little in common with the Main Street economy.

First, we knew the dot-com phenomenon was a bubble built on hype, and it burst. In the run up to the burst, dot-com seminars devolved to lessons on how to hype a product concept and cash out to a big firm.

Next, we watched the dot-com bubble-wealth run to stocks on Wall Street in a transparent irrational exuberance. That new bubble burst as the fraudulent practices of the corporate sector were exposed. All of the corporate sectors were in on it: Banks were financing bogus business activities, the consulting divisions of accounting firms were helping cook the same books being certified by their audit divisions, legal firms were helping corrupt clients wiggle out of the illegalities, the corporate media was singing the praises of the robber barons, and the good will of various civic organizations was being purchased with philanthropy from the corrupt corporations. This is all continues.

Third, after the Wall Street bubble burst, the accumulated wealth ran to real estate, triggering an upward series of self-fulfilling cycles of price increases. Laws to prevent predatory lending practices were gone and boundaries on who could finance real estate were lifted. The bubble inflated as people bought multiple properties on the back of cash from refinanced properties. Some of that activity was legitimate, and the profits were somewhat real... "somewhat" real, as long as the Federal Reserves' current struggle to bail out the financial institutions doesn't cause inflation that decreases the "real" value of those profits. You know you have a bubble when practically everyone is saying, "You know, I couldn't even afford to buy the house I'm now living in." That bubble is deflating. Where will the money run to create the next bubble?

So, what makes up the the chain in the real estate reaction?

  • Home Buyer (Borrowers)
  • Lenders to Home Buyers
  • Mortgage Brokers (not always the lender themselves)
  • Mortgage Buyers/Bundlers (Create Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS - bonds))
  • MBS (Bond) Buyers (e.g, Pension Funds, University Endowments, Hedge Funds, Banks use them as reserves)*
  • Primary Dealers (21 large commercial banks that interact directly with the Federal Reserve and with whom large lenders deal)
  • Federal Reserve
How does the chain reaction work?

First, the prices on homes are artificially inflated by excessive accumulated wealth and rules rigged to help an elite minority make more wealth off of the real estate market as described above. This is a failure of the capitalist system, which makes homes unaffordable even to middle income people, setting them up as scapegoats.

Second, mortgage brokers scam buyers into accepting exotic loans, such as interest-only adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs), assuring them that "This is common these days. It's just the way things work." The mortgage broker has no risk. He just takes a fee and never holds the mortgage. The lender only holds the mortgage briefly, usually selling it to the secondary market, experiencing no risk. The secondary market buys bundles of mortgages that are used as collateral on bonds known as mortgage backed securities (MBSs). These are sold to pension funds, endowments, and others, including banks that use them to meet their reserve obligations.

The risk associated with the mortgage is passed on so far from the the point of initiation that the system seemed designed for failure. Actually, it was designed by votes in Congress paid for by lobbyists whose clients knew they could make money off the system before they knew it would fail. An insider's game. Yes, we could see what was coming, and we knew "the economy" was a house of cards, despite what well-paid business pundits were saying on phony TV.

If you think this type of game is limited to real estate sector, think again. This same game has become the American way, according the a recent report by the US Comptroller General comparing the United States to failing Rome.

But I digress...

Third, the buyer who, was scammed by mortgage brokers into taking a very risky mortgage, can't meet the payment; maybe the rate has finally adjusted on the ARM, or a health problem is limiting income and creating additional costs. They buyer becomes the scapegoat. The financial industry saw this coming and worked with both Republicans and Democrats in 2005 to toughen the US personal bankruptcy law, contributing to the creation of what Warren Buffet calls a "debt peonage" society.

Fourth, as the "debt peons" fail to pay their artificially inflated mortgages, the owners of the mortgage backed bonds don't receive their regular dividends. Many large banks to own such bonds as part of their mandatory reserve. Not only are their reserves losing value, but in many cases, banks and others take out low interest loans to buy such bonds (a carry trade: low interest loan pays for higher interest investment and the difference is taken as profit). Without the income from the mortgage backed bonds, these banks and others can't pay their loans. It's a classic carry trade trap that has caused the failure financial institutions in the past.

In many cases, the lender who provided the loan for the mortgage bonds also has debt payments to make, or has loaned out the same dollar 5 times as part of the leveraging that is implicit in fractional reserve banking (banks only hold a small fraction of hard money, or bonds, in reserve to back up their loans. They assume it is very unlikely for everyone to demand their cash at the same time. Note that some of that "hard money" is in the form of mortgage backed bonds...).

If the institutions caught in this kind of bind are big enough, there is a risk of a domino effect affecting the entire economy. It's already expected to happen, given layoffs of failed mortgage companies like American Home Mortgage, and First Magnus Financial Corp., and reduced purchases of hardware and home products associated with the exchange of home purchases, a large sector of the US economy. You know you have a crisis when the Federal Reserve steps in to give short-term loans in the hope that these chain reaction liquidity problems can be resolved. They buy bonds from primary dealers, who in turn make credit available to banks facing a liquidity crisis.

Macro-scale Liquidity Crisis

This is an example of a direct chain of liquidity crises at the micro economic scale among individual institutions. But there's also a macro economic liquidity crisis, which takes the form of less money available for loans. Recall above we mentioned that some banks use mortgage backed bonds as their reserves. The logic follows:

1. Much of the world's investments are in real estate and related financial instruments (MBSs), because of the historic real estate boom over the last six years. This means a lot of mortgage backed bonds are sitting in vaults out there, including as reserves (collateral to support loans).

2. As the value of these mortgage backed bonds declines, bank's reserves shrink. They can loan out less money, that is, credit liquidity shrinks on a macro scale.

Going International

That's the domestic story for the US. The macro-scale story continues as the financial problems jumped the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans . That's a separate story.

April 6, 2007

Scary Collection of Subprime Mortgage Links

If you're curious about the unraveling subprime mortgage market, take a look at this list of articles.

Sources:

Redit.com
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April 5, 2007

Subprime Scandal: Don't Blame the Victims

.
It's so predictable. Soon you'll be hearing politicians and corporate media pundits repeat the following over and over:

"We feel bad that people are loosing their homes to foreclosure, but they should have known better than to take on more debt than they could afford."

Many of the people who are loosing their homes will go along with this half-truth and drop their heads in guilty shame. They won't realize that they are victims of the The cancer stage of capitalism.[1]

Wealth has been consolidating into the hands of fewer people and corporations over the past few decades starting with policies of the Regan administration. It continued through policies of the Clinton (DLC) Administration, including support of corporate globalization and the 1996 Telecommunications Act. Then, the dot-com bubble burst and corporate corruption, symbolized by Enron, resulted in capital flight from Wall Street. This forced investment wealth to find a new home, and much of it fled to real estate; not just buying property, but investing in mortgage backed securities. Now, not only are subprime mortgage holders feeling pain, but pensions, university endowments, insurance companies and some of the largest commercial banks that are over-invested in the real estate bubble are soon to feel the pain (40 mortgage companies have recently filed for bankruptcy).

Corporate-sponsored Congressional deregulation of the financial and real estate industries allowed the real estate and associated finance industrial complex to run amok (get corrupt). Not only did money run to real estate, but money was created from thin air in the form of people taking out loans literally on top of loans on top of artificial equity, which fueled more speculation until this iterative cycle inflated an artificial real estate bubble of historic proportions. This led to artificially high real estate prices; how many of us have heard friends say, "I couldn't even afford to buy the house I live in. Glad I bought it when I did." Predatory lenders continued to lull people into signing mortgage loans for these over-priced homes. Profit-driven lenders convinced people that these exotic mortgages were the norm, and the only way anyone could afford to buy a home these days, suggesting that "every one's in the same boat."

So, is it really fair to blame people caught in default for over-priced homes, and simply look the other way from Congress, Bush's regulatory agencies, Wall Street, get-rich-quick scammers and the corporate media that has watched this travesty unfold without saying anything? Is the media really that clueless, or are they just part of the keep-quiet inside crowd?

One more prediction; it's certain that several members of Congress on both sides of the isle are implicated in this mess, just like the Savings and Loan tripple-scandal of the 1980s. The first scandal was the corporate-sponsored Congressional deregulation of the Regan era. The second scandal was the corporate corrupt exploitation of the deregulated markets. The third scandal was that Congress hid their blame buy bailing out the irresponsible industries with government bonds. That resulted in tax payers not only paying for the binge of the S & L scammers, but paying interest on the government bonds to.... those who are wealthy enough to buy the bonds... including those who profited from the S & L scams.

Will the public ever learn? We need to put some people in jail, regardless of their political affiliation.

Notes:

1. This is a reference to John McMurtry's book, The Cancer Stage of Capitalism. The US economy has evolved to a stage in which few tangible products are created. Instead, accumulated capital is moved around in speculative activities that are disconnected from the real economy. This can result in many dislocations, such as commodity prices being driven up by hedge funds, hitting small farmers with prices that don't make "economic" sense and threatening their existence.
~

March 20, 2007

National Mortgage Bad News

From a skim of today's National Mortgage News, the news is not good. Mortgage lenders are cutting staff, purchase agreements for the sale of mortgage companies are being amended drastically to cut the sale price, Senate hearings are being scheduled, forclosure guidelines are getting lots of attention, Fannie Mae is selling off assets, the rating compainies can't seem to keep up with analyses to downgrade mortgage backed securities and mortgage companies.

The talk all seems to be about the secondary mortgage market. But one article stands out:
Wall Street wants to get its arms around rising subprime loan defaults as fast as possible so it can move forward with the least disruption to the markets...
In other words, Wall Street wants to staunch the spread of a liquidity crisis to other sectors of the economy.

NovaStar Cans 17% of Its Staff

Struggling subprime funder NovaStar Financial trimmed its work force by 17% -- 350 positions -- on Friday, citing the changing landscape of the mortgage industry. Click here for more...

People's Choice Shedding Workers?

People's Choice Financial Corp. -- which recently pulled a key registration statement with securities regulators -- is contemplating significant layoffs and has not funded a loan in more than a week, according to industry sources. Click here for more...

Accredited Facing Delisting

Accredited Home Lenders, San Diego, has been notified by the NASDAQ stock exchange that it will be delisted because it did not file its annual 10-K report by March 15. Click here for more...

Fieldstone Sale Price Cut by 28%

Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization LLC will pay 28% less for Fieldstone Investment Corp., Columbia, Md., under an amended purchase agreement disclosed March 16. Click here for more...

Dodd Sets Subprime Hearing

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., says he is looking for ways to prevent millions of subprime borrowers from losing their homes and will be pressing regulators and industry representative for solutions at a March 22 committee hearing. Click here for more...

Reich: B&C Guidance Frowns on 2/28 'Steering'

The recently proposed federal subprime lending guidance reminds lenders that they should help consumers make informed choices and not steer them into 2/28 adjustable-rate mortgages when they might qualify for another product, according to Office of Thrift Supervision Director John Reich. Click here for more...

FTC Cites Foreclosure Guidelines

Servicers should not start foreclosure proceedings until a borrower has missed three monthly payments of principal and interest, according to a Federal Trade Commission attorney. Click here for more...

Street Seeking to Get Handle on B&C Defaults

Wall Street wants to get its arms around rising subprime loan defaults as fast as possible so it can move forward with the least disruption to the markets, according to a loss mitigation firm hired to get a fix on polls of nonperforming mortgages. Click here for more...

CoreLogic Predicts 13% ARM Foreclosure Rate

A study by First American CoreLogic predicts that 1.1 million of the 8.37 million adjustable-rate mortgage loans originated between 2004 and 2006 will end up in foreclosure over a six- to seven-year period. Click here for more...

Citi Buys Fannie LIHTC Portfolio

Citibank NA has purchased from Fannie Mae a portfolio of investments representing approximately $676 million in federal Low Income Housing Tax Credits, according to the two companies. Click here for more...

Fannie Adjusts Series K Dividend Rate

Fannie Mae has announced a dividend rate adjustment for its series K variable-rate noncumulative preferred stock. Click here for more...

Fitch: Subprime Exposure Drops for ABCP

Subprime-related mortgage exposure for U.S. asset-backed commercial paper programs fell sharply in the fourth quarter, though it remained high by historical standards, according to Fitch Ratings. Click here for more...

Fitch Downgrades Morgan Stanley MBS Classes

Twenty-seven classes from 15 Morgan Stanley subprime mortgage-backed securities have been downgraded by Fitch Ratings. Click here for more...

Moody's Downgrades GSAMP MBS Classes

Six certificates from three GSAMP Trust deals issued in 2006 have been downgraded by Moody's Investors Service. Click here for more...

MASTR MBS Classes Downgraded

Three tranches from two deals issued by MASTR Second Lien Trust have been downgraded by Moody's Investors Service, and one tranche has been placed under review for possible downgrade. Click here for more...

SACO MBS Class Downgraded; 9 on Review

Class B-3 of SACO I Trust 2004-3 has been downgraded from B3 to Caa2 by Moody's Investors Service, and nine other certificates from various SACO I deals have been placed on review for possible downgrade. Click here for more...

Moody's Eyes New Century MBS Classes

Five certificates from New Century Home Equity Loan Trust series 2006-S1 have been placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody's Investors Service. Click here for more...

Terwin MBS Classes on Review

The ratings of five classes from three Terwin Mortgage Trust securitizations have been placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody's Investors Service. Click here for more...

Fremont MBS Classes Under Review

Four certificates from Fremont Home Loan Trust series 2006-B have been placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody's Investors Service. Click here for more...

Ace MBS Classes Under Review

Four certificates from Ace Securities Corp. Home Equity Loan Trust have been placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody's Investors Service. Click here for more...

Moody's Eyes Long Beach MBS Classes

Classes M-7, B-1, and B-2 from Long Beach Mortgage Loan Trust series 2006-A have been placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody's Investors Service. Click here for more...

Merrill MBS Classes Placed on Review

Two subordinated certificates from Merrill Lynch Mortgage Investors Trust series 2004-SL1 and 2004-SL2 have been placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody's Investors Service.

March 6, 2007

Subprime Crisis: Old News

Subprime mortgage defaults have been moved into the news spotlight as a result of recent stock market "corrections." The recent stock drops were caused, in part, by concern that major US commercial banks, pension funds and trusts might be financially exposed to subprime mortgage woes.

But the "news" about a crisis in the subprime mortgage market is actually old. The Oct-Sept issue of Mother Jones magazine carried a piece entitled, "Prime Suspect." It exposes the makings of another Savings and Loan crisis that might be unraveling.

The piece opens:

Cleveland is on the front lines of a housing boom gone soure. So how are the bankers, brokers, and speculators still generating massive profits?


Good question. Meanwhile, the article describes people's lives being ruptured. Robert Perry's mortgage holder, Bank One, moved to foreclose on his home of 14 years when he came up $250 short on a debt settlement payment of $2,565. Barbara and Rober Anderson, in Cleveland's Slavic Village, watched the houses in their neighborhood go vacant as 376 houses were foreclosed upon in 2005. For all of Cuyahoga County, there were 11,000 foreclosures.

Sheriff's auctions of homes are common, and the banks are buying back some houses at bargain prices. The courts are so full, and the predatory stories so sad, that some judges are throwing out cases for typos and minor errors in a show of resistance. Referring to defaults, Chief Magistrate Stephen Bucha says, "It started because of changes in lending practices," enabled by the U.S. Congress.

Since Congress won't want to take the blame, they will down-play the growing significance of the corrupt real estate market, and pass off the costs to the tax-payer... unless we don't let them.

Contact the Media:

You can be sure the right-wingers would be firing off e-mails to corporate media offices if they were in our shoes. So, tell the media outlets that "we want you to cover the corruption associated with the unraveling Subprime Mortgage Crisis."

CLICK: Media Contacts

Sources:

Mother Jones Magazine, "Prime Suspect," By Alyssa Katz, September/October 2006 Issue.

March 5, 2007

Real Estate House of Cards Teetering

We all know the stories: Super hot real estate over the last five years has attracted inexperienced investors, some rehabbing and selling, some buying vacation homes, some buying to rent and resell. As the market peaked over the summer 2006, these investors are starting to exit the market; those who bought late are facing losses, particularly for rehabbers.

You don't need to be an analyst to recognize the next story. It goes like this, "I couldn't even afford to buy the house I'm living in." Raise your hand if you've heard that one in recent years. Ah, but the mortgage companies came to the rescue with innovative loan instruments, the most well known being interest-only ARMs. They are only affordable if the value of the home increases to enable a future refinancing. Those who bought recently are just plain out of luck. These are "subprime" mortgages, and in today's world of high finance, in which anything can be bundled and sold as a "bond," we now have mortgage-backed securities.

Add these stories together and you have a lot of people trying to sell real estate at the same time. Enter the principle of "supply and demand," in this case a double-wammie of massive supply of houses for sale combined with little demand to buy those houses. I anticipate housing prices to continue to decline further in 2007.

But guess what? Many large banks, 401k investors, and pension funds have invested in these "mortgage-backed securities," which increasingly are sold with very little documentation of their risk. So, in addition to teetering real estate market, many of our financial institutions are sitting on top of these houses of cards.

While much of today's financial news is focused on stock markets, the jitters are triggered by the stories outlined above. Here's what's being reported by an AP business writer:

HSBC Holdings PLC, Europe's largest bank, said it suffered $10.6 billion in losses in 2006 on bad loans from its U.S. subprime mortgage operations.

Companies involved with subprime mortgages, already dragged down by concerns that too many people are defaulting, were kicked down further when New Century Financial Corp., the second-largest subprime lender, said late Friday that a federal prosecutor and the New York Stock Exchange are conducting investigations into its stock movements. New Century fell $10.09, or 69 percent, to $4.56.

Also spooking investors was Fremont General Corp.'s announcement Monday that it is planning to sell its subprime residential real-estate lending business. Fremont fell $2.82, or 32.4 percent, to $5.89.

The burgeoning subprime worries also hurt banks and homebuilders Monday: National City Corp. and Washington Mutual Inc. fell more than 3 percent, while Toll Brothers Inc., D.R. Horton Inc., and Centex Corp. all lost more than 4 percent.


Ouch! I'm betting there is more bad news to come. My prediction is that there will be a nasty crash and the government will "solve the problem" by bailing out compainies that are too big to let them fail. The bail out will fall on the shoulders of the tax payers, and a small number of the inside crowd will walk off with millions as they have in the past (read "Savings and Loan Scandal." There were two scandals: The common one in which S & L scammers gammed the system, and the one in which Congress hid their complicity and put the burden of the bail out on the tax payer.)
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