Climate Change Fatigue and Hope

I produce monthly news and entertainment audio show called GDAE Podcast. I recently received the following comment on Episode 23, to which I responded in late-December (Episode 24).

Alas I fear we are beginning to suffer from Climate Change fatigue. This of course plays into the hands of those who don't believe global warming is real or who have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. Reports from the Copenhagen meeting on the subject make it seem like just another big corporate sponsored conference rather than a gathering to find a way to prevent a global disaster. Now there are some "experts" who say that no matter what we do we're doomed unless we deal with the population exponential growth problem. When I heard that I of course flashed back to my early environmental action days in 1968 when Paul Ehrlich's famous book, "The Population Bomb" was published. It's been some 40 years since then and nothing seems to have changed. Until Times Square starts to fill up with sea water I fear nothing will change. Sorry to be so pessimistic. I hope I'm wrong and suddenly the majority of people in the world become intelligent.

My Response: I'm not sure that a majority of people would make a difference, after watching the US Senate water down the healthcare legislation in order to secure 60 of 100 votes to pass a bill without a public option. That's inspite a solid majority of American people being intelligent enough to want a public option.

AH! but not all is lost, as we are reminded by Margaret Meade who said:

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has." -- Margaret Meade

"Hope" means feeling that the effort that you put into a cause has a real prospect of making a positive change.

Sources:

GDAE Podcast

Global Climate Change Accelerating

I'm debating with myself. Will George Bush go down in history as a war criminal or global climate change criminal? Perhaps both, but certainly the latter. People in the future might forget the wars, and Bush might escape prosecution on war crimes, but they will be living the global climate disaster.

When I read that scientists have concluded global warming is accelerating my thought was, "This means they are VERY certain about global warming." That comes from my physics background; detecting "acceleration" means you already know something about the velocity of the trend. By analogy, it's one thing to see a car is moving in a particular direction at some velocity, but it's more difficult to tell that it's picking up speed. Scientists have apparently confirmed the latter.

Bush's White House is just grasping the fact that the car is moving in the direction of climate change. I doubt they appreciate the fact that it's picking up speed.

The Associated Press writes, "Sharon Hays, a White House science official and head of the U.S. delegation, said the certainty of climate change was clearer now than when Bush rejected Kyoto." Hays said,

What's changed since 2001 is the scientific certainty that this is happening.... Back in 2001 the IPCC report said it is likely that humans were having an impact on the climate...

The AP adds, "but confidence in human responsibility had increased since then."

Yvo de Boer, the U.N.'s top climate change official, recently said,

What's new is the clarity of the signal, how clear the scientific message is ... "The politicians have no excuse not to act.

To toss in another physics concept, the trend in global warming has inertia, which means, even if the foot is eased, the car will simply drop to a constant velocity (we'll keep getting warmer); even if the foot is taken off the gas pedal and the car slows down, it will keep going in the same direction (getting warmer); even if the brakes are applied, it will keep going in the same direction (getting warmer). Inertia.

Actually, the point about inertia isn't new, but it is news in the corporate media. This was known in the mid-1990s when I was grad school. There's a physical reason for it. As the earth warms, and the northern regions locked in permafrost get soggy, the frozen organic matter is subject to bacteria decay and gives off methane, a greenhouse gas that's at least ten-times as efficient as carbon dioxide in trapping solar radiation in the earth's changing atmosphere. As the earth warms, and permafrost melts, more of this gas is released, thereby generating more gas, leading to more warming in a positive feedback process. Inertia

In theory, this process could spin out of control, that is, lead to the "runaway greenhouse effect." It's called "runaway" because it runs away from human control to do anything about it. It could lead to the total demise of the Earth.

The sick reality is that the Bush crony capitalists, like Blackwater World Wide, are positioning themselves to profit from this emerging disaster. I've not read Naomi Klein's recent book on disaster capitalism, but I'd have to guess it touches on this topic. If not, her paperback version of The Shock Doctrine should.

Sources:

Associated Press, UN panel gives dire warming forecast, ARTHUR MAX, November 17, 2007.

Runaway Greenhouse Effect

Global climate change could spin out of control, that is, lead to the "runaway greenhouse effect." It's called "runaway" because it runs away from human control to do anything about it.

There are a variety of positive feedback mechanisms that could lead to this outcome. For example, as the earth warms, and permafrost melts. The organic matter in the frozen muck decays and methane gas is released. As more of this greenhouse gas is released, more solar radiation is trapped leading to more warming. This leads to further melting and decay of the frozen tundra in a positive feedback process.[1]

This is what some NASA scientists had to say about the phenomenon:

The phenomenon, called the ‘runaway greenhouse’ effect, occurs when a planet absorbs more energy from the sun than it can radiate back to space. Under these circumstances, the hotter the surface temperature gets, the faster it warms up [that is, it accelerates]... scientists believe Venus did experience a global runaway greenhouse effect about 3 billion to 4 billion years ago.

So, we hear a lot about sea level rise, disease, and other likely impacts of global climate change, but very little is said about the runaway greenhouse effect. Perhaps the popular media should stir people's imagination with a description of Venus, which is where the Earth could end up if we don't take action soon:

Water and water vapor are extremely rare on Venus due to its high surface temperature that can approach 758 K (900 °F). This extreme temperature is caused by the greenhouse effect. As sunlight heats Venus' surface, the surface radiates infrared energy that is kept from escaping the planet by dense carbon dioxide atmosphere.

The Earth is not Venus. The Earth is in a different orbit around the Sun, the planet sizes are different, the atmosphere of Venus is far more dense; however, the severity of outcome of a potential runaway greenhouse event on Earth subordinates all other considerations relative to taking action; even an economic depression like that of 1930s would be a cake walk compared to the alternative.

Notes and Sources:

[1] Another example, Tropical Runaway Greenhouse, is described in the paper below.

NASA, Ames Research Center, TROPICAL ‘RUNAWAY GREENHOUSE’ PROVIDES INSIGHT TO VENUS,
Kendall Powell, John Bluck, Release: 02-60AR, May 15, 2002